Explained: What is the third wave of Code-19? Will it affect children more? Learn full details

AIIMS Director Dr Randeep Guleria warned on Saturday that the next wave of viral infections could occur in the next six to eight weeks if proper code of conduct is not followed and congestion is not stopped. The threat of a third wave is so great that even in April and May 2021, the effects of the second catastrophic wave in India could have been mitigated. Among the many cases in India were spiraling infections, increasing deaths, lack of health facilities and increase in medical oxygen. Lockdown and severe restrictions were also imposed in most parts of the country to deal with the disaster.

Now that cases have begun to decline and prevention is easing, experts are warning of a third wave, which some believe will have a greater impact on children.

How to be careful in this regard and what to expect? Here are the full details of the upcoming third wave of code:

The ndustan kuud 19 in the third wave?

Earlier, epidemiologists in India had indicated that a third wave of COVID-19 could occur and it is likely to start in September or October 2021. However, Dr. Galleria said on Saturday that the tide could turn in the next six to eight weeks unless there is a significant increase, with Cowade’s proper conduct with strict surveillance and area lockdowns.

A recent Snap survey conducted by Reuters between June 3 and 17, which included 40 experts, including doctors, scientists, virologists, epidemiologists and professors from around the world, asked: When is the expected time for the third wave to hit?

More than 85 percent of those surveyed, or 21 out of 24, said the next wave would arrive by October, including three experts who predicted the epidemic could re-emerge in early August, while others Twelve people said it was likely to happen in September. The other three experts said the third wave could occur between November and February.

Will it be deadly for children?

Health ministry officials and Dr Guleria have often reiterated that there is no evidence that children will be more affected by the next wave of infection.

However, some experts believe that the coming wave could be more deadly for children. Nearly two-thirds of experts surveyed by Reuters were asked if children and people under the age of 18 were most at risk from the third wave. So there were many differences between them.

Dr. Pradeep Banandur, head of the epidemiology department at the National Institute of Mental Health and Neurosciences, was quoted as saying: “The reason is that he In terms of vaccination, there are completely virgin populations because there is no vaccine available for them yet. ”

On Friday, the Joint Secretary of the Ministry of Health, Liu Aggarwal, said in response to concerns about the effects of the third wave of corona virus on children, “It would not be true that children in the third wave would be disproportionately affected because The facts show that seropositivity was almost equal in all age groups. But the government is making every effort to prepare.

In a study, the World Health Organization and the All India Institute of Medical Sciences said that the third wave could not affect children in any way. The findings were based on a sample surveillance study of 10,000 samples in five states. In the under-18 age group, code 19 has a survival rate of 55.7% and in the over-18 age group is 63.5%.

Will the third wave be better controlled than the second?

Experts say that the third wave of Code-19 in India can be better controlled than the second due to many factors. Public opinion polls by Reuters say the wave will be better controlled as more people will be vaccinated by then. It added that India’s observations in the second wave would greatly reduce the number of cases.

Dr Galleria said the third wave would be more controlled, as there would be fewer cases because more vaccines would have been introduced and the second wave would have had some degree of natural immunity.

Although many experts have predicted a significant increase in the vaccination campaign in the coming months, they have warned against lifting the ban as soon as possible, as some states have done.

Will lockdowns and restrictions be effective?

However, some experts believe that the third wave could still be extremely difficult. Dr. Suranjit Chatterjee, a senior consultant at Apollo Hospitals, has warned that if safety measures are not being followed by the public and if violations are not strictly enforced, then we are in trouble. Are victims.

The number of cases dropped dramatically from 288 to 131 in April. And if the lockdown is the root cause, then we have to be very careful now that the sanctions have been gradually reduced. ”

“But if people show leniency by not wearing masks or wearing inappropriately or violating the principles of human distance, and if law enforcement agencies do not impose fines and make sure that Violations do not result in an increase in quantity, so of course we have a problem. And the next wave could be worse than the second. “

In mid-May, medical experts agreed that it was largely a lockdown that had reduced the number of cases per day, warning that the severity of the cases was still the same. ۔ Dr. Richa Sareen, a pulmonology consultant at Fort’s Hospital here, recently lost a family member to Code. “The threat of a third wave is real and not a myth,” he said.

“We had the same threat in February,” he said. When everyone used to go on vacation, have house parties or start social work in public places, now that the second wave has caused so much damage and so many lives have been lost, we need to realize that we have to be careful. Will be”.

The pulmonologist emphasized that in the second wave, at least one person in each household was either infected with the code or the family knew of such a person. “We hope that people will learn from the second wave, but it seems that we are not as wise as ordinary people. The situation will be worse than the second wave. If we do not use common sense, there will be more danger. The government can’t always keep a lockdown, but we can maintain discipline and go out only when needed, ”he said.

Dr Galleria said monitoring strategies in code hotspots and lockdowns were needed in case of any significant increase. He said that when there is a significant increase in the number of cases reported in a particular area and the positive rate exceeds 5%, then lockdown and control measures related to the area should be implemented.

However, he said that lockdown at national level could not be a solution in view of economic activity.

Will the third wave be more dangerous for Maharashtra?

The Maharashtra government’s task force has made various predictions for the third wave. Behind this is the different state of Delta Plus. According to the projection, the number of active cases of Code 19 could reach eight lakh at its peak.

It added that 10% of active cases are likely to be children and the timing of the wave cannot be predicted as there is an interval of 100 to 120 days between the two waves but in some countries up to 14 It was a period of 15 weeks.

Delta variants a cause for concern:

According to a recent survey by Public Health